Using Dr. Michael J. King’s Leavenworth Papers only:
REQUIREMENT #1: Running Estimate
You are the S-3 of the 6th Ranger Battalion conducting mission analysis on 27 January 1945 at the Ranger base camp at Calasiao on the Lingayen Gulf. Provide a complete movement estimate that LTC Mucci and his staff would use to develop plans and analyze various courses of action. Although you have the benefit of hindsight, write your running estimate as you would have on 27 Jan (in the present or future tense) rather than as an AAR in the past tense. Although there are some guides and formats to a generic estimate, as well as a sample medical estimate included with this examination, you can modify those formats or develop one to help you present your analysis to LTC Mucci. Your movement estimate should include, but is not limited to:
• Time available to conduct the operation before the Japanese decide to move or murder the POWs, and how much time to allocate to planning, preparation and execution.
• Maintaining secrecy in varied terrain during day and night operations.
• The appropriate balance of speed and security.
• The best time of day to initiate actions on the objective.
• The anticipated distances covered by, time required to, and rates of movement for:
o the Ranger advance to the POW Camp
o actions on the objective
o the movement of Rangers & former POWs and 6th Army to a link-up point
o Japanese counterattacks.
• How Filipino civilians and guerrillas, as well as the US Army Air Corps can help expedite friendly forces or impede enemy forces.
Essentially, your estimate should explain to LTC Mucci how the Rangers can get to the compound before the Japanese make the fatal decision, and how the task force and former POWs can link up with 6th Army before the Japanese catch that vulnerable group. The goal of the estimate is to help LTC Mucci plan for this mission by providing him specific information he probably doesn’t know, rather than general ideas which he probably does know. For example, stating that the POWs will move slowly is not helpful to LTC Mucci, while ESTIMATING that the POWs could move at one mile per hour for three hours before needing two hours for food and rest could be helpful to LTC Mucci and his staff.
REQUIREMENT #2: The Problem
Using previous course material, the Military Review article, and the student aid, articulate LTC Mucci’s problem including at least ONE critical element for each mission variable (METT-TC).
REQUIREMENT #3: The Mission
While developing his commander’s estimate, LTC Mucci brainstormed three different words to use for his ESSENTIAL TASK in the mission statement: Liberate, Raid, Secure. Citing your references, (a) provide a current US Army doctrinal definition for EACH of the three words (or dictionary definition if no doctrinal definition exists), and then (b) select and justify which one to include as the essential task in the Rangers mission statement. Note: You are not required to write a mission statement—only to select and justify which one word LTC Mucci should use as the essential task in his mission statement.
REQUIREMENT #4: Purpose and Task
SELECT FIVE OF THE EIGHT ELEMENTS FROM THE LIST BELOW.
• The Filipino Guerrillas
• The Alamo Scouts
• 1st Platoon Charlie Company
• 2nd Platoon Charlie Company
• 2nd Platoon Foxtrot Company
• The Filipino Civilians
• The Radio Team in Guimba
• The 6th US Army
For each element selected, (a) list the most important contribution (TASK) that it made during the operation, (b) explain why that contribution was needed (PURPOSE), and (c) explain how that contribution was synchronized with at least ONE other action that preceded, followed or occurred concurrent with it. When possible, use a tactical mission task from current US Army doctrine, even if the author did not use a proper task.
Example Response for the US Army Air Force: The American airplane disrupted (Task) the Japanese Guards so that the Rangers could crawl close to the POW camp undetected (Purpose). The Black Widow flew over the camp “at 1840, three-quarters of an hour before the attack was to begin,” (King p 64) while the Rangers were crossing the open field outside of the POW Camp.
REQUIREMENT #5: Commander’s Critical Information Requirements (CCIRs)
Construct a logical IF, AND/OR, THEN sequence justifying LTC Mucci’s decision to assault on 30 January. You are not required to include OR in your response, but should include elements related to the enemy, your own multinational force, the POWs, and local support. (Keep in mind that a decision to delay on 29 January does not justify an assault on the 30th, because conditions could have been worse.)
REQUIREMENT #6: Commander’s Judgment
Compare and contrast LTC Mucci’s decision to delay actions on the objective on 29 Jan with his decision to conduct actions on the objective on 30 Jan. In other words, explain how the conditions on 29 Jan differed from those on 30 Jan, resulting in LTC Mucci’s decision to delay on 29 Jan and assault on 30 Jan. (Keep in mind that his reason for delaying was different from the benefit of delaying.)
REQUIREMENT #7: COA Analysis, Comparison & Recommendation
On 27 January, while the Rangers are still in their base camp planning and preparing for their mission, LTC Mucci approaches you and says: “I’m very concerned the locals may not be able to provide enough carts to move the POWs back to Guimba. Please wargame these three contingencies and give me your recommendation and rationale.”
• Continue to move toward Guimba, recognizing that movement will be slow.
• Stay in the camp and defend while the 6th Army sends a regimental combat team to link up with us.
• Move outside the camp to the first concealed location, and establish a defensive perimeter while the 6th Army sends a regimental combat team to link up with us.
A recommended approach is to (a) list the most relevant facts and assumptions, (b) establish & define the measurable evaluation criteria, (c) analyze each COA against each evaluation criterion, (d) compare the COAs, and (e) make and justify a recommendation.
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